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A New Measure of Preferences on the Independence-Unification Issue in Taiwan
Emerson M.S. Niou
Duke University, USA and Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, niou{at}duke.edu
An accurate and reliable measure of preferences on the independence-unification issue is indispensable to the study of Taiwanese politics. In the foreseeable future the study of Taiwanese politics and the cross-Strait relations will continue to focus on Taiwanese preferences on the independence-unification issue. These preferences, however, are neither readily identifiable nor easily defined. For many people, it might be a simple and a straightforward choice between for or against Taiwan’s independence, but others are less decisive because their preferences are conditional on factors such as China’s military threat, the USA security commitment to Taiwan, and China’s prospects of becoming democratic and prosperous. In this article I devise a new measure of people’s preferences regarding this issue. I show that a large percentage of the people in Taiwan can agree simultaneously to unite with China if China becomes modernized and democratic and to declare independence if China will not use force and peace can be maintained. Because independence and unification are not necessarily mutually exclusive alternatives, this empirical finding questions the appropriateness of the traditional six-point scale one-dimensional representation of Taiwanese preferences on the independence-unification issue.
Key Words: cross-Strait relations • public opinion • Taiwan independence • Taiwanese politics
References
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Journal of Asian and African Studies, Vol. 40, No. 1-2,
91-104 (2005)
DOI: 10.1177/0021909605052946
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